000
WTNT45 KNHC 050841
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012
500 AM AST FRI OCT 05 2012
 
OSCAR REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING...WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.
DUE TO CONTINUED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE OSCAR IS ABSORBED BY AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
OSCAR IS NOW EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OSCAR
SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...WITH THE REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER
SUBSEQUENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES.  FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO
FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 23.0N  38.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 25.5N  35.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN