000
WTNT45 KNHC 110838
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NATE HAS DEGRADED DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHRINKING
AND IS NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS
60 KT. IN ADDITION...DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS NOW UP TO 1003 MB. BASED ON THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50
KT. NATE IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN AND IT APPEARS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY THAT IT WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH AND
RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW NATE DISSIPATING BY 36 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
NATE IS MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST AND THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/6.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 19.9N  95.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 19.8N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  12/0600Z 19.7N  97.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA