000
WTNT45 KNHC 262031
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011
500 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2011
 
THE DEPRESSION IS BARELY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS.  THE
CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE IS QUITE ELONGATED...WITH SEVERAL
SMALLER SWIRLS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.  CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED AS WELL AND LIES FAR TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.  THE
INITIAL WINDS ARE KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON CI NUMBERS FROM
TAFB/SAB...BUT MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  

THE CENTER HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON
VISIBLE IMAGES...GIVING A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 315/6.  THIS
GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE DEPRESSION MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A
LEFTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW
SYSTEM.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...MOSTLY BECAUSE
OF THE CENTER RELOCATION...BUT REMAINS WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THIS CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH COOLER
SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BECOMING MORE HOSTILE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL AND DYNAMICAL
MODEL FORECAST.  THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
A FEW DAYS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL IF IT
DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH EVEN SOONER THAN THAT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 15.6N  34.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 16.3N  34.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 17.2N  35.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 18.1N  36.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 18.8N  37.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 20.0N  40.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE