000
WTNT45 KNHC 260241
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
 
DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE TO
THE EAST OF THE EDGE OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS.  THIS STRUCTURE IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT SHOWN OVER
THE DEPRESSION BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE UW-CIMSS SATELLITE
ANALYSES.  GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY
IN AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB.  THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS NEVER BECOME ESPECIALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION...HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS THE SHEAR
DECREASES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  BY 48 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL
BE MOVING OVER WATERS NEAR OR BELOW 26C...WHICH SHOULD HALT ANY
INTENSIFICATION.  WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 72
HOURS...AND SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND LIES BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  

GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS STILL
MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF A
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT
TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS
THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE WEAKENING CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH 96 HOURS...AND IS SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE AT DAY 5. 
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 14.1N  33.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 14.7N  34.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 15.5N  34.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 16.4N  35.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 17.4N  36.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 19.5N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 20.5N  40.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  31/0000Z 21.5N  43.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN