000
WTNT45 KNHC 252059
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED.  THE CURVED
BANDS FROM EARLIER TODAY ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE MORPHED INTO A
BURSTING PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF A SHEARED CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL
WINDS WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
COULD PREVENT STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION IN THE SHORT-TERM
ALONG WITH THE POOR INITIAL STRUCTURE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY IS ON FRIDAY WITH GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING A
DECREASE IN SHEAR WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. 
HOWEVER...THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER 48
HOURS IN ADDITION TO THE DEPRESSION ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS. 
THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND TURNED TO THE RIGHT...
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/8.  THIS TURN IS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. 
THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO THIS WEAKNESS.  A LEFTWARD TURN IS
ANTICIPATED AFTER 3 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS AND BECOMES MORE
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
LARGE SPREAD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
LINKED TO THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH.  SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO GAIN MUCH STRENGTH...THE FORECAST LIES NEAR OR LEFT OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
IN THE LONG RANGE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 13.8N  32.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 14.4N  33.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 15.2N  34.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 16.0N  35.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 16.9N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 19.0N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 20.5N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 21.5N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE