000
WTNT45 KNHC 031450
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE DEPARTED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO WIND SHEAR. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALSO LESS DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. THE LAST
WINDS REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHILE EXITING THE
CYCLONE SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS
ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SHEAR PATTERN NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
MOVES OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS EMILY MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. ASSUMING EMILY CAN MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP
CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE STEERING PATTERN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFS REMAINS ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 16.7N  69.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 17.5N  71.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 19.0N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/0000Z 21.0N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  05/1200Z 23.0N  76.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 26.6N  78.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 30.5N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 34.1N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA