000
WTNT45 KNHC 022042
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011
 
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME INCREASE
IN THE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT YET 
WELL DEFINED AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 45 KNOTS AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE
EMILY MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IF EMILY
SURVIVES THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST
TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST OR CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE GFS...WHICH 
DISSIPATED EMILY IN THE TWO PREVIOUS RUNS HAS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
STORM MOVING EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS IN THE 12 UTC RUN.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.

SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND HAS BEEN REFORMING
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT EMILY HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD TRACK AND
IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN SPEED. MOST OF THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS EMILY MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 15.8N  65.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 16.2N  66.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 17.3N  68.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 18.5N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1800Z 20.5N  72.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  05/1800Z 24.0N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 28.0N  78.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 32.0N  77.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA