000
WTNT45 KNHC 021451
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011
 
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SO FAR...
WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER AND FAIR UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS AROUND 1007 MB...
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT OR VARIABLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL
FOR STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE STORM...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. 
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP EMILY...AND IN FACT...BOTH MODELS BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE NEAR HISPANIOLA.
 
FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS
BEEN MEANDERING AND MAY BE REORGANIZING NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY.  A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE EMILY ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTH THEREAFTER.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 15.3N  63.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 15.7N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 16.5N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 17.5N  70.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 19.0N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/1200Z 22.5N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  06/1200Z 26.5N  78.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 30.0N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA