000
WTNT45 KNHC 231749
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON FOUND
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND WINDS
SUFFICIENT TO CLASSIFY THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY STRENGTHEN FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND PASS OVER OR NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY ISSUED AT 2100 UTC.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1800Z 13.9N  76.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 14.1N  77.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 14.7N  80.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 15.4N  83.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 15.9N  85.1W    60 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 16.9N  87.8W    70 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N  88.4W    70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     28/1200Z 19.5N  87.5W    70 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART