000
WTNT45 KNHC 070850
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
 
THE CENTER OF HERMINE MOVED THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLIER
THIS MORNING AND PRODUCED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND
GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT SEVERAL REPORTING SITES.  THE
HIGHEST WINDS REPORTED IN THE INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND NORTH OF THE
CENTER WERE 48 KT WITH A GUST TO 63 KT...OCCURRING AT VALLEY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN HARLINGEN TEXAS AROUND 0600 UTC.  SINCE
THAT TIME...THE BAND OF CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT.  THE GUST FACTOR IS BEING HELD A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL BASED ON THE EARLIER OBSERVATIONS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM
DECAY OVER LAND AND SHOWS HERMINE WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY.  GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
ABSORBED BY A WARM FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HOURS.
 
HERMINE HAS BEEN MOVING JUST A LITTLE EAST OF...AND FASTER THAN...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AT 340/15.  THE FORECAST REASONING HAS
NOT CHANGED...AND THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS.  HERMINE WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA IN
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE RECENT MOTION OF
THE STORM BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THEREAFTER.

AS HERMINE WEAKENS TODAY...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 27.0N  98.0W    45 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 28.7N  99.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 30.9N 100.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 33.3N 100.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 36.1N  99.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN