000
WTNT45 KNHC 072032
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009
500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2009
 
HENRI IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING
EVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION.  THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALSO IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED WITH A
SECONDARY CENTER NOTED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES.  A BLEND OF THE
TAFB/SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES GIVEN AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 35 KT...
BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
SHEAR IS LIKELY FOR A DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE.  IF HENRI SURVIVES THAT SHEAR...AN UPPER-TROUGH AXIS WITH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE THE KNOCKOUT BLOW TO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING DISSIPATION WITHIN 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...
IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN NEAR THE CENTER...THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW.
 
USING A MEAN MOTION OF THE TWO CENTERS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
290/12.  A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH IS PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD
CAUSE HENRI...OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF...TO TURN WESTWARD OR EVEN
SOUTH OF WEST UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES.  THIS SOLUTION HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE NEAR BAM SHALLOW.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 19.4N  58.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 20.1N  60.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 20.9N  62.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 21.2N  63.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 21.0N  66.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE