000
WTNT45 KNHC 132037
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE DAY AND THE APPARENT CENTER HAS BEEN AT TIMES EXPOSED DUE TO
SHEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPANDING WESTWARD SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR IS RELAXING A BIT.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INDICATE THAT THERE IS A
LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE.  A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE DEPRESSION SHORTLY.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST IS INDICATED AND IT
CONTINUES TO BE A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL
PAIR. THE LATTER MODELS MAKE THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
NEAR PUERTO RICO.  

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND
LITTLE MOTION IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND
STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO
RECURVE AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD
SPEED.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR PUERTO RICO IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THEN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALTHOUGH A
FORECAST POSITION IS INDICATED AT 120 HOURS OVER THE ATLANTIC...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY
A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY THAT TIME.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 14.8N  69.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 14.9N  69.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N  69.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N  68.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 17.7N  66.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N  63.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 23.5N  59.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     18/1800Z 27.5N  56.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA