000
WTNT45 KNHC 060252
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
 
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ABOUT 120 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE...THE CYCLONE HAS
BEEN UNABLE TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DEEP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR WELL OVER 12 HOURS. IN MOST CASES A SYSTEM LIKE THIS
WOULD NORMALLY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME CHANCE FOR RE-STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED FOR NOW. ADVISORIES COULD BE
DISCONTINUED SOON...BUT COULD ALWAYS BE RESTARTED AGAIN IF THE
SYSTEM RE-INTENSIFIES DOWN THE ROAD.
 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF JOSEPHINE ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER AN AREA OF LOW
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. DYNAMICALLY...
STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND AN
ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF JOSEPHINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE FOR
ANOTHER 36 HOURS.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME
WEAKENING...ON THE VERGE OF A REMNANT LOW...THROUGH 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AND THE FORECAST ALLOWS
FOR THIS BY SHOWING SOME SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS SHOW JOSEPHINE BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN IN 4-5
DAYS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF ANYTHING SURVIVES THE
NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE ACCEPTING THIS SOLUTION.
 
JOSEPHINE IS MOVING SLOWLY AT 295/6. WITH THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A
SHALLOWER SYSTEM AND STEERED INCREASINGLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 16.3N  35.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 16.8N  36.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 17.6N  38.7W    25 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 18.7N  40.9W    25 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 19.8N  43.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 22.0N  46.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 24.0N  49.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     11/0000Z 25.5N  52.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA