000
WTNT45 KNHC 052033
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
 
JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. NEARLY ALL
OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT. JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WEST IN
TANDEM WITH THE STORM. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN
AND IF THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT OF JOSEPHINE IT WILL HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE
JOSEPHINE MAY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE OF THESE SCENARIOS HOLDING JOSEPHINE STEADY STATE. 

JOSEPHINE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS
VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 16.0N  35.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 16.4N  36.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 17.3N  37.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 18.5N  39.7W    30 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 19.7N  41.9W    30 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 22.0N  45.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N  48.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     10/1800Z 26.0N  51.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE