000
WTNT45 KNHC 051436
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
 
STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON JOSEPHINE
THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY NEAR THE SOUTH EDGE OF A BLOW-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
1000Z. SINCE THEN...THE CENTER HAS BECOME MUCH FARTHER SEPARATED
AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. ACCORDINGLY...
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...A CONSENSUS OF THESE ESTIMATES. JOSEPHINE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN TANDEM WITH
JOSEPHINE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES
AND IF THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT OF JOSEPHINE IT WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
RESTRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
JOSEPHINE HAS BEEN GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A 12 HOUR MOTION ESTIMATE IS
300/7...BUT IT HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS STEERED BY A
BUILDING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND TOWARD THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 15.8N  34.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 16.2N  35.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N  37.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 18.0N  39.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 19.2N  41.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  45.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N  48.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     10/1200Z 25.5N  51.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE