000
WTNT45 KNHC 031457
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THE INTENSITY IS NOW NEAR 55 KT.   IF
JOSEPHINE HAS ASPIRATIONS OF BECOMING A HURRICANE...IT NEEDS TO DO
SO QUICKLY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST...IS BEGINNING TO
IMPINGING UPON JOSEPHINE...AND THE OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED
TO THE NORTHWEST.  ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESENCE OF ARC CLOUDS
EMANATING FROM THE CLOUD CANOPY SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR MIGHT BE
AFFECTING JOSEPHINE.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GET EVEN
STRONGER AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK GET COOLER... WEAKENING
APPEARS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRACIOUSLY ALLOWS FOR A
LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TODAY FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS SO JOSEPHINE COULD WEAKER FASTER THAN
SHOWN HERE.  

WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALMOST
DUE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT.  SINCE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD...A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 13.8N  28.8W    55 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 14.1N  30.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 14.8N  33.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 15.4N  35.6W    55 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 16.0N  38.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 17.5N  43.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 19.5N  47.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 22.0N  52.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/RHOME