000
WTNT45 KNHC 030838
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
 
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER OF
JOSEPHINE THIS EVENING...DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS EXPANDING OVER
THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE.  BASED ON THE IMPROVED
CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 50
KT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF
JOSEPHINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASING SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING BEYOND THE 36
PERIOD.  IN FACT...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/11...WITHIN THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.  DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAUSING JOSEPHINE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A BIT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND
36 HOURS WITH ONE CLUSTER CONSISTING OF THE UKMET AND THE GFS TO
THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO A SHALLOW
DEPICTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
BLEND...THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS AND THE SUPER ENSEMBLE ARE
INDICATING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN A DEEPER LAYER FLOW. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO CLUSTER
SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 13.7N  27.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 14.2N  29.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 15.0N  31.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 15.8N  34.4W    60 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 16.6N  36.8W    50 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N  41.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  45.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     08/0600Z 22.5N  50.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH