000
WTNT45 KNHC 160852
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
500 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007
 
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERIN
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. NOAA BUOY 42019
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 32 KT AND VELOCITY DATA FROM
THE CORPUS CHRISTI WSR88D INDICATE WINDS IN THE 35 KT RANGE ABOVE
THE SURFACE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
UNCHANGED AT 35 KT. WHILE THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION ARGUES
AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...ERIN STILL HAS 6-12 MORE HOURS
OVER WATER SO SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 
 
ERIN HAS BEEN WOBBLING A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT A LONGER
TERM MOTION YIELDS AND INITIAL ESTIMATE OF 300/10.  A CONTINUATION
OF THIS BASIC MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH THE TRACK CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 27.3N  96.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 28.0N  98.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 28.8N  99.9W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 29.5N 101.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN