000
WTNT45 KNHC 152041
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007
 
THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN ARE WELL
DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM
BUOYS NEARBY AND ANALYSIS OF LOW-CLOUD MOTION SUGGEST THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED AND POORLY ORGANIZED.
THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FAVOR
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE AREA SOON.      

BECAUSE ERIN IS STILL IN FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN
REFORMING...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS. SINCE THERE IS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ERIN...THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING ERIN INLAND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR
LESS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 26.3N  94.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 27.2N  95.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 28.0N  97.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 29.0N  99.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 30.0N 100.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA