000
WTNT45 KNHC 151438
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007
 
A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SO FAR THE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25-
KNOT WINDS. ON THE OTHER HAND....VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW.
THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
AS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
12 KNOTS. THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY PACKED AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 25.4N  93.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 25.8N  95.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 26.5N  97.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 27.0N  99.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 28.5N 100.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA