000
WTNT45 KNHC 150832
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
500 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS RAGGED AND RATHER ILL-DEFINED. 
EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA IS INCONCLUSIVE AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE
CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS...ESSENTIALLY IN BETWEEN TWO APPARENT CLOUD SYSTEM
CENTERS.  GIVEN THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SOME RELOCATION MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECONNAISSANCE
FLIGHT AROUND 1200 UTC.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/9.  THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL STEER THE
CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST. 
HOWEVER...A NORTHWARD REFORMATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER LATER
TODAY IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES.  ACCORDINGLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY NEAR LANDFALL BUT IS OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGED. 
 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.  THIS EVOLUTION IS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL
SHEAR AND A MORE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.  STILL...THE CURRENT LACK
OF ORGANIZATION ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  EVEN IF
THE DEPRESSION CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATER TODAY...IT
WOULD ONLY HAVE A DAY OR SO OVER WATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST THEREFORE CALLS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.  ONCE INLAND...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN WITH
DISSIPATION BY DAY 3...IF NOT SOONER. 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 24.6N  91.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 25.3N  93.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 26.4N  95.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 27.3N  97.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 28.0N  98.9W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME