000
WTNT44 KNHC 202036
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042016
400 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

The initial motion estimate is 285/07 kt using a 12-hour average
motion. A 1638 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated that the center of
Danielle has maintained a northwestward motion, which was indicated
by earlier reconnaissance aircraft fix data. In contrast, satellite
animation shows that the larger scale cyclonic circulation has been
moving westward. Excluding some internal wobbles, the general
forecast track motion should be toward the west or west-northwest
for the next 24 hours due to a large low- to mid-level ridge
remaining anchored over the southern Plains and southern United
States. On the forecast track, which is similar to the HWRF model,
the center of Danielle should move inland this evening along the
east coast of Mexico near Laguna Tamiahua.

No significant strengthening is expected before landfall occurs due
to Danielle's interaction with the mountainous terrain of eastern
Mexico and dry mid-level downslope air being entrained into the
southern and eastern portions of the circulation. Rapid weakening of
the cyclone is forecast after landfall occurs, with dissipation
expected by 36 hours.

Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with
Danielle. More than 8 inches of rain have already occurred at Pozo
Rica de Hidalgo, Mexico (station MMPA). These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over portions of
eastern Mexico during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 21.3N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 21.4N  97.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/1800Z 21.4N  98.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart