000
WTNT44 KNHC 192058
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

The low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has
become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical
depression, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic
hurricane season. Although the thunderstorm activity was closer to
the center of the cyclone earlier today, the convection is now
a little better organized with some evidence of banding features on
the north side. In addition, data from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that the circulation is well defined and has
maximum winds near 30 kt.  This intensity is also supported by
NOAA buoy 42055 which has been reporting winds around 30 kt
most of the day.

The depression is moving westward at about 7 kt to the south a
mid-level high pressure system over the south-central United States.
This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is
predicted, taking the cyclone inland over eastern Mexico in about 24
hours, or perhaps sooner.  The official NHC track forecast is close
to the GFS and ECMWF models.

The strong southwesterly wind shear currently affecting the
depression is expected to lessen by tonight, which could allow for
slight strengthening before the system begins to interact with land.
Once inland, the cyclone is expected to quickly dissipate when it
interacts with rugged terrain.

Based on the forecast, the Government of Mexico has issued a
tropical storm warning for a portion of the coast of Mexico within
the state of Veracruz.

The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be
heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico tonight through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 19.9N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 20.0N  95.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 20.3N  96.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 36H  21/0600Z 20.5N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown