000
WTNT44 KNHC 260257
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012
 
THE CENTRAL REGION OF NADINE CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
BROAD CONVECTION-FREE AREA...WITH THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT WHICH IS
BETWEEN THE LATEST ADT AND AMSU ESTIMATES.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
LARGE FIELD OF STRATIFORM CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NADINE
WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A STABLE AIR MASS...AND NOT A CONDUCIVE
FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING.  ON THE OTHER HAND...VERTICAL SHEAR OVER
NADINE IS NOT STRONG AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY
WARM...AND SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
FARTHER SOUTH.  A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
THIS GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
HALT STRENGTHENING.

THE STORM HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED TURN TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING
ABOUT 210/4.  THIS MOTION...OR EVEN A SOUTHWARD MOTION...IS LIKELY
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS NADINE IS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
A STRONG TROUGH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.  IN 2-3 DAYS...AS THE TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...NADINE
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.  NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH.  HOWEVER IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL MOVE TO A HIGH ENOUGH LATITUDE TO BRING ABOUT ITS
DEMISE ANY TIME SOON.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 31.2N  30.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 30.5N  30.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 29.6N  30.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 28.7N  31.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 28.4N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 29.0N  34.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 31.0N  35.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 33.5N  36.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH