000
WTNT44 KNHC 250231
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 24 2012

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION...EXTENT...AND
INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE.  BANDING
FEATURES REMAIN ILL-DEFINED AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE FOUND IN
A CLUSTER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED HIGHEST WINDS OF 35 KT AND...EVEN
ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOW BIAS OF THESE DATA...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY HIGHER THAN 40 KT AT THIS TIME.  THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET TO THE LATTER VALUE...WHICH REMAINS ABOVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THERE IS INCREASED OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NOW CUT OFF TO THE
SOUTH OF NADINE.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TRAVERSE A WARMER OCEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS OR SO...WITH WEAKENING LIKELY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT
NOW APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A WESTWARD COURSE WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF ABOUT 280/6.  FORECASTING THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE REMAINS A CHALLENGE.  A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADINE WILL APPARENTLY CAUSE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND...BRIEFLY...SOUTHWARD DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...AS THE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD...
THE STORM SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE RIGHT AND HEAD NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE
DIVERGENT AT DAYS 4-5...SO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS OF
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 32.2N  29.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 32.2N  29.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 31.5N  30.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 30.7N  30.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 29.9N  30.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 29.0N  31.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 29.5N  32.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 31.0N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH