000
WTNT44 KNHC 210832
TCDAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 21 2012
 
NADINE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATELLITE...AND ITS
FUTURE IS AS UNCERTAIN AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT. THE CENTER IS DEVOID
OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE ONLY CONVECTION IS WITHIN A BAND IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SINCE I DO NOT HAVE ANY NEW DATA...AND THE
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE VIGOROUS ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS. NADINE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH AN APROACHING COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER COOL WATERS. 
 
NADINE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 7
KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AZORES
SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NADINE WILL LIKELY
BECOME TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND BEGINS TO MEANDER AGAIN.
THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IS TO FORECAST IF NADINE WILL BE
POST-TROPICAL...SUBTROPICAL...OR WILL ACQUIRE AGAIN MORE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES THAT NADINE
WILL BE A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT ANY SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 35.1N  27.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 34.0N  26.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 33.0N  25.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  22/1800Z 32.5N  24.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  23/0600Z 32.5N  24.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  24/0600Z 32.5N  23.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  25/0600Z 32.5N  23.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  26/0600Z 32.5N  23.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA