000
WTNT44 KNHC 260242
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010
 
RICHARD BARELY REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER LAND OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  IF NEW CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTER SOON...RICHARD WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS RICHARD TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TUESDAY.  A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RICHARD TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 18.4N  91.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 19.1N  92.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 20.3N  93.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 21.5N  94.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN