000
WTNT44 KNHC 232045
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
500 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
 
THE EYE OF DOLLY MADE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN PADRE ISLAND EARLIER
TODAY AS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY ONE TO CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT LANDFALL
REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB AND WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 80 AND 85 KNOTS.  THE EYE IS NOW PARTIALLY INLAND
OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY
INTERACTING WITH LAND...A GRADUAL WEAKENING HAS BEGUN. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED A 75 KNOTS AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS DOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE INLAND DECAY SHIPS MODEL. 

DOLLY BEGAN TO MOVE ON A MORE STEADY NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 7
KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT
48 HOURS. 

DOLLY IS A LARGE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND CAN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 26.6N  97.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 27.0N  98.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 27.5N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 28.0N 102.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA