000
WTNT44 KNHC 292031
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007
 
AFTER BEING EXPOSED FOR A FEW HOURS...NEW DEEP CONVECTION HAS
REGENERATED NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...
PRIMARILY OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AS WELL AS THOSE
PROVIDED BY UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT MELISSA IS STILL A 35-KNOT
TROPICAL STORM. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER MELISSA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE CYCLONE COULD
KEEP ITS STORM STATUS FOR THAT PERIOD. THEREAFTER...BOTH SHEAR AND
A COOL OCEAN WILL LIKELY TAKE A TOLL ON MELISSA. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF
NOT EARLIER.
 
MELISSA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300
DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MODEST SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE AND THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK. IN THE LAST
RUN...MODELS KEEP MELISSA A LITTLE LONGER...AND ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT MOVING THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE
OT THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 15.6N  29.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 16.3N  30.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N  33.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N  35.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N  37.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     02/1800Z 21.5N  41.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     03/1800Z 24.0N  44.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     04/1800Z 26.0N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA