000
WTNT44 KNHC 122053
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
500 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
 
THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION OF HUMBERTO HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE CORE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DO NOT YET REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...BUT SFMR DATA...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF SHIP
REPORTS...SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT. THERE WERE A FEW
HIGHER SFMR WIND REPORTS IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT...BUT TWO DROPSONDES IN THAT BAND DID NOT CONFIRM THOSE
HIGHER WIND ESTIMATES. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A LIGHT-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED.  THE
PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE OVER WATER...AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT HUMBERTO WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME OVER WATER TO REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/5.  THIS TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION...AND HUMBERTO MAY HAVE ROUNDED THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.  A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
INDUCE A FURTHER TURN OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO COULD
DETACH FROM THE WESTERLIES AFTER 48 HOURS AND LINGER NEAR THE GULF
COAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 28.6N  94.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 29.4N  94.7W    55 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 31.0N  93.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 32.3N  92.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 33.0N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN