000
WTNT44 KNHC 221439
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DEAN
IS FINDING FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF CLOSE TO 100 KT...AND RECENT
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A CONTRACTION OF THE INNER CORE WIND
FIELD.  A DROPSONDE ABOUT 20 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER RECENTLY
REPORTED A WL150...I.E. LOW-LEVEL...MEAN WIND OF 100 KT...
CORRESPONDING TO 85 KT AT THE SURFACE.  ON THIS BASIS...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT...MAKING DEAN A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE.  FORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES IN THE CORE STRUCTURE
ARE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO LANDFALL TO ALLOW FOR MUCH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME...285/16. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING...AND DEAN IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR TUXPAN. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 20.6N  96.3W    85 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 21.2N  98.6W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 21.3N 101.6W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI