000
WTNT44 KNHC 181448
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE ENTERED THE EYE OF DEAN THIS MORNING AND FOUND
THAT THE HURRICANE HAS NOT WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 130 KNOTS. IN FACT...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 924
MB AT AROUND 1200 UTC AND THEN UP TO 929 MB JUST RECENTLY. DEAN
WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH EYEWALL CYCLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
RESULTING IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE PEAK
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
IS VERY HIGH.  DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE AT ANY TIME BEFORE
IT REACHES YUCATAN.
 
THE STEERING PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY STEADY. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS STEERED BY A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A LOW OVER FLORIDA.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DEAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST
TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH INSISTS ON A TRACK FARTHER TO
THE NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 15.7N  68.6W   130 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.4N  71.0W   130 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.3N  74.3W   135 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.3N  77.8W   125 KT...NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.5N  81.4W   140 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N  88.5W   100 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 23.0N  94.0W   110 KT
120HR VT     23/1200Z 25.4N 100.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA