000
WTNT43 KNHC 022036
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
Colin has lost organization this afternoon. Visible satellite and
Doppler radar images along with surface observations indicate that
the circulation has become elongated from north-northeast to
south-southwest, and it is starting to resemble a trough. In
addition, the convective pattern remains ragged with deep convection
confined to the east and southeast of the center. The highest wind
reports are in the Wilmington, North Carolina area, where sustained
winds have been in the 20-25 kt range. The initial intensity is held
at 35 kt, but this could be generous. Hopefully ASCAT data will
provide more information on Colin's intensity tonight.
 
The ongoing northwesterly shear of about 20 kt is expected to
continue and an approaching cold front is likely to cause the system
to become even more elongated. Based on these factors, Colin is
expected to dissipate in a day or two, if not sooner. The strongest
winds will likely occur along and off the North Carolina coast
through Sunday.
 
The storm is moving northeastward at 6 kt. A slightly faster
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected, which should take
the center of Colin along or just offshore of the North Carolina
coast during the next 24 hours, followed by a track over the
western Atlantic. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of
the guidance envelope.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
within the warning area along the North Carolina coast through
Sunday.
 
2.  Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the
North Carolina coast through Sunday.
 
3.  Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal North Carolina through Sunday morning.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 34.0N  78.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 12H  03/0600Z 34.5N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  03/1800Z 35.7N  75.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 36H  04/0600Z 37.1N  71.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi