000
WTNT43 KNHC 211449
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021
 
Claudette's low-level center is estimated to be back over water. 
However, it is difficult to locate in surface observation data due 
to the broad inner-core wind field and elongated pressure envelope 
near the NC/VA coasts in which the cyclone is embedded. For now, the 
surface center has been placed close to the low- to mid-level 
circulation center noted in KAKQ and KMHX Doppler radar data. The 
initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 1200 UTC 
32-kt wind report from ship 3EVZ8 located about 130 nmi southeast of 
the center.
 
Claudette continues to accelerate east-northeastward and the motion 
is now 060/24 kt. The track forecast and discussion remain pretty 
straightforward. Claudette is now caught up in the deep-layer 
west-southwesterly flow on the north side of a broad subtropical 
ridge and ahead of a mid-latitude trough currently moving into the 
eastern and southeastern United States. The cyclone or its remnants 
will gradually lift out toward the northeast ahead of the 
approaching mid-latitude trough by tonight, with that motion 
continuing through Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to 
the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of consensus 
track models TVCA, GFEX, and HCCA.

As Claudette continues to accelerate, its increased forward speed 
could result in the low-level wind field opening up into a trough, 
which would result in the cessation of the system as a tropical 
cyclone. For now, however, the assumption is that the cyclone could 
strengthen a little more, which would allow for the surface wind 
field to remain closed today and into Tuesday until the system 
weakens over the cold North Atlantic waters north of the Gulf 
Stream, which is located along roughly 38N latitude. As a result, 
Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in 
about 24 h, follows by dissipation in about 48 h. The official NHC 
intensity forecast remains very similar to the previous one, and the 
track closely follows the intensity consensus models HCCA and IVCN.
 
Key Message:
 
1. Heavy rain from Claudette will continue to diminish this morning 
across far southeast Virginia and the Outer Banks of North Carolina. 
Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are 
possible.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 37.0N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 38.7N  71.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 41.8N  65.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/0000Z 44.8N  59.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart