000
WTNT43 KNHC 082051
TCDAT3

Hurricane Katia Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Satellite imagery continues to show Katia becoming better organized
with the formation of a small, cloud-filled eye this afternoon.
The initial wind speed has been increased to 90 knots based on the
subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB.  Another
reconnaissance plane is expected to arrive in a few hours to check
on the winds of Katia.

Additional strengthening is possible prior to landfall, and Katia
could still become a major hurricane, but there is only about 6
hours left for this to occur. After landfall, rapid weakening is
expected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain
of the Sierra Madre mountains between 24 and 36 hours.

Katia has moved westward during the day, but a longer-term motion is
still west-southwestward at 6 kt.  The official track forecast was
shifted to the north near landfall due to the more westerly track
this afternoon. The new forecast then resumes a more southwesterly
track based on northerly mid/upper-level flow seen on infrared
imagery ahead of the storm and model guidance.

In addition to a dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds,
very heavy rains associated with Katia are expected to affect
eastern Mexico. These rains will likely cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 21.0N  96.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 20.8N  97.3W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/1800Z 20.0N  98.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake