000
WTNT43 KNHC 070837
TCDAT3

Hurricane Katia Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017

Katia has not changed appreciably during the past several hours
with a small central dense overcast and a curved banding feature in
the northeastern quadrant.  Satellite estimates are about the same
as earlier, so the initial wind speed will stay at 70 kt.  An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the
hurricane in a few hours to get a better estimate of the current
intensity.  Katia is forecast to be over very warm waters with
decreasing shear for the next 24-36 hours.  Thus strengthening is
expected as long as the center remains offshore.  It is still
puzzling why most of the guidance don't intensify this much, but
since the global models continue to show significant deepening, the
official forecast will stay on the high side of the guidance.

The hurricane is essentially stationary, waiting for a ridge to
build over the northwestern Gulf to steer Katia southwestward at a
faster pace.  Most of the guidance are in agreement on this track,
although the UKMET is a notable outlier showing more of a westward
motion.  The only significant change from the previous advisory is
to speed up the track of Katia as it approaches the coast.  Given
the latest track forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the previous Hurricane Watch area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 21.5N  94.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 21.5N  94.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 21.2N  95.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 20.8N  95.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 20.2N  97.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 72H  10/0600Z 19.5N  99.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake