000
WTNT43 KNHC 200253
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS
EVENING INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. THIS WAS A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
EARLIER ESTIMATES AND REQUIRED A RELOCATION ON THE 0000 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 53 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. A
DROPSONDE THAT JUST MISSED THE CENTER MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 997 MB WITH 32 KT AT THE SURFACE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS AROUND 994 MB... A DROP OF ABOUT 11 MB SINCE THIS
MORNING.  THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. 

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  HARVEY WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM
WATER AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.  THE ONLY INHIBITING
FACTOR IS ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ASSUMES THAT HARVEY WILL MOVE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST AND
BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF
THE GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HARVEY TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS PREDICTED AND HARVEY IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS.
 
BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT FIXES THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8...A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...
THE 0000 UTC GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...PRIMARILY DUE TO
THE SOUTHEASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.  THIS REQUIRED A 
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC TRACK AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 16.2N  85.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 16.4N  86.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 16.8N  88.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/1200Z 17.3N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  22/0000Z 17.7N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  23/0000Z 18.5N  96.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE