000
WTNT43 KNHC 190841
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
 
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN EASY TO LOCATE THIS
MORNING.  BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA...THE
CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SMALL
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS. 
THIS YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/10.  THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MORE-OR-LESS WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF ITS EXISTENCE WHILE BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES AT THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NEAR THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE
SIMPLER BAM MODELS.  ALTHOUGH A 72 HOUR FORECAST POINT IS
PROVIDED...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HIGH TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL HAVE ANNIHILATED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY
THAT TIME.

DVORAK NUMBERS ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM SAB...AND THE
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY...NOT TO
MENTION THE CENTER LOCATION...IF IT EXISTS AT ALL.  LITTLE TO NO
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SINCE THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO SKIRT ALONG THE COAST OF...OR MOVE INLAND
OVER...HONDURAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT IF THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WATER FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AS SHOWN BY
THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  IT COULD ALSO JUST AS
EASILY MOVE OVER LAND AND NEVER RE-EMERGE OVER WATER...WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE ANY INTENSIFICATION AT ALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 15.5N  83.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 15.6N  84.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  20/0600Z 15.8N  86.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  20/1800Z 16.1N  87.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  21/0600Z 16.4N  89.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  22/0600Z 17.0N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA