000
WTNT43 KNHC 220258
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
1100 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011
 
CINDY HAS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINED A TIGHT INNER CORE OF SYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS INDICATED BY THE GEOSTATIONARY AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING
TO WARM. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS ANALYZED
BASED UPON THE TAFB DVORAK CI OF 3.0 AND A 22Z AMSU CIMSS ESTIMATE
OF 39 KT. THE MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A
WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE AND THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT UNDERGO AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.  INSTEAD...IT APPEARS THAT CINDY WILL LOSE ITS DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT A DAY OR SOONER DUE TO PASSING OVER QUITE
COLD SSTS AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH NOT SHOWING AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS NEW TO THIS ADVISORY.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS QUICKLY CONTINUING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT
23 KT...AS IT IS BEING ADVECTED AROUND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THAT ISSUED
PREVIOUSLY.
  
THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY BASED UPON A
CIRA AMSU SIZE ESTIMATE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 43.5N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 45.9N  39.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 49.5N  33.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/1200Z 53.5N  26.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH