000
WTNT43 KNHC 211441
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
1100 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CINDY HAS SEVERAL RAGGED CONVECTIVE
BANDS AROUND THE CENTER THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND REMAIN 35 KT FROM
SAB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.  THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE SYSTEM DURING
THE LAST 24 HR...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/25.  CINDY IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST. 
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AS
WELL.

CINDY IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM AND SHOULD
SOON ENCOUNTER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THIS
AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOSTLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CALLING FOR CINDY TO DISSIPATE BY THE 72 HR POINT.  ONE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IS TO DELAY THE COMPLETION OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY 12 HR BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 40.3N  47.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 42.7N  43.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 45.9N  38.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 49.8N  32.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/1200Z 52.0N  26.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN