000
WTNT43 KNHC 210859
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011
 
CINDY HAS DEVELOPED A DOUGHNUT HOLE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION.
WHILE I AM NOT READY TO CALL THIS AN EYE FEATURE...IT DOES SUPPORT
INCREASING THE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ONLY SUPPORT 35 KT...GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE AND NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS OF 1022-1023 MB IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. AS A
RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045-24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE QUICKLY OVER MUCH COLDER WATER 
IN ABOUT 124 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM AS CINDY
REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 24C. BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH
COLDER WATER.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS DUE TO COLD
WATER AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 38.3N  49.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 40.7N  45.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 43.8N  40.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  22/1800Z 46.8N  34.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/0600Z 50.0N  27.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART