000
WTNT43 KNHC 210258
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
1100 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011
 
CINDY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OR SATELLITE PRESENTATION OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...A TIMELY 0058 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT VECTORS IN A GENERALLY CONVECTION-FREE
REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45
KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  CINDY IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
20-25 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A 2302 UTC SSMIS PASS INDICATED
THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
 
CINDY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAME STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT
WILL BE CAUSING TROPICAL STORM BRET TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/21.  THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND CINDY WILL
CONTINUE ON A QUICK NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS
LIFE.  THE GFDL APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND SHOWS A SHARP NORTHWARD
TURN JUST AFTER 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE GFS.  THIS
TRACK IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM AS CINDY REMAINS
OVER WATER OF AT LEAST 24C.  THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER.  THE GLOBAL MODEL
FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD OPEN UP BY 72
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS DISSIPATION BY THAT
TIME.
 
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS LOWERED TO 1004 MB BASED ON DRIFTING BUOY
44943...WHICH CROSSED THE PATH OF CINDY AND REPORTED A WELL-
CALIBRATED PRESSURE OF 1007.3 A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 36.3N  51.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 38.5N  48.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 41.3N  44.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 44.0N  39.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/0000Z 46.8N  33.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG