000
WTNT43 KNHC 202038
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED NORTH OF BERMUDA YESTERDAY HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS.  HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION JUST
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS TROPICAL CYCLONE
CHARACTERISTICS...AND THUS THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM
CINDY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A 35-KT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT CIRA AMSU ESTIMATE OF
41 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/22.  CINDY IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH ITS LIFETIME.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CINDY WILL PASS OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 24-26C FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW
SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING AS SHOWN IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 
AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER MUCH COLDER WATER AND
INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  CINDY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
COMPLETELY BY 96 HR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD
OCCUR EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 35.2N  53.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 37.1N  50.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 39.9N  46.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 42.4N  42.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  22/1800Z 45.4N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/1800Z 52.5N  25.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN