000
WTNT43 KNHC 150259
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SATELLITES INDICATE TROPICAL
STORM PAULA HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAS BECOME LESS
DISTINCT...AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE MARKEDLY WARMED. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD HAS ALSO
BECOME ELONGATED WEST-TO-EAST NEAR VERADERO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KT IS BASED ON SFMR REPORTS OF 45 KT FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  

PAULA IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 085/12. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE. THE
RESULTANT SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA... AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE VERY
DIVERGENT NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND PROXIMITY TO
LAND WILL CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND THAT PAULA HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
 
NOTE...THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE REPORTED THAT A PEAK WIND
GUST TO 65 KT...120 KM/HR...OCCURRED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AT
MARIEL.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 23.1N  81.4W    40 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 23.1N  80.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 23.0N  78.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 22.8N  77.9W    25 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  77.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART