000
WTNT43 KNHC 142044
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
500 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
THE CENTER OF PAULA MOVED OVER CUBA NEAR PUERTO ESPERANZA AROUND
NOON TODAY AND PRODUCED A WIND GUST FROM THE NORTH OF 68 MPH...110
KM/HR...AT THE WEATHER STATION IN LA PALMA. SINCE THEN...THE CENTER
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME GRADUALLY SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION WHICH IS TO THE NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DUE TO BOTH SHEAR AND THE
EFFECT OF LAND. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IN THE AREA JUST MEASURED WINDS
BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS OVER WATER TO NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF HAVANA...BUT THESE WINDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. PAULA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES...AND THE CYCLONE COULD
BECOME A DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS.
 
PAULA IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 090 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A
GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER HAVANA AND CENTRAL CUBA.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER COULD BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED AND MOVE
TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK AND THIS
POSSIBILITY EXISTS IF PAULA DOES NOT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THIS
TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND CALLS
FOR A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...KEEPING PAULA ON AN EASTWARD TRACK
UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 22.8N  82.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 23.0N  81.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 23.0N  79.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 23.0N  78.5W    25 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N  78.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA