000
WTNT43 KNHC 141437
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN REPORTING HOURLY FIXES AND PLENTY OF
WIND OBSERVATIONS. THE CENTER OF PAULA IS STILL UNDER THE
CONVECTION AND CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON LA BAJADA RADAR LOCATED IN
WESTERN CUBA. BASED ON SFMR DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED GENEROUSLY TO 60 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS NOT
COMPLETELY SHEARED YET...BUT WITH THE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE UNFAVORABLE EFFECT OF THE CUBAN TERRAIN AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THIS WEAKENING COULD
OCCUR FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
PAULA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070 DEGREES AT 5
KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN CUBA. AS
PAULA WEAKENS FURTHER...AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS WILL BE FORCED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHWARD OVER CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN
BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY
ALL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS...BUT BY THEN PAULA IS FORECAST TO
JUST BE A REMNANT LOW.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 22.8N  84.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 23.1N  83.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N  82.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 22.5N  80.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 22.0N  80.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.0N  80.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA