000
WTNT43 KNHC 132042
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
400 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
A HURRICANE IS CROSSING BETWEEN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND EASTERN
YUCATAN...BUT WITHOUT MODERN TECHNOLOGY NO ONE WOULD KNOW IT WAS
THERE. 

HAVING SAID THAT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW
THAT PAULA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. THE SHEAR DISRUPTED THE CLOUD
PATTERN AND THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS ARE BECOMING GRADUALLY
DETACHED. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER...AND A SMALL 8 N MI EYE AS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT. 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND AIRCRAFT DATA STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR...AND
THE EFFECT OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CUBA...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER CUBA IN ABOUT THREE
DAYS...POSSIBLY SOONER. 

PAULA MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT NOW IT APPEARS TO
BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 025 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. 
THE HURRICANE ALREADY RECURVED AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STEER PAULA ON
A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
SINCE THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS LARGE. IN GENERAL...MODELS
MAINTAIN THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MOVING EASTWARD AND KEEP A WEAK
REMNANT LOW MEANDERING NEAR CUBA. BY THEN...PAULA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 21.7N  85.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 22.1N  85.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 22.7N  84.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 23.0N  82.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 23.0N  81.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N  79.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA