000
WTNT43 KNHC 131446
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
PAULA IS A SMALLER THAN USUAL HURRICANE AND THE EYE HAS BEEN TRACKED
ALL MORNING WITH BOTH WESTERN CUBA AND CANCUN RADARS. THE
HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS AN EXCELLENT PRESENTATION WITH A
CLOSED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION DEFINING THE EYEWALL. VISIBLE IMAGES
SHOW A HINT OF AN EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE
PREVIOUS WIND MEASUREMENTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER A LITTLE MORE
THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS. PAULA IS ALREADY REACHING
THE AREA OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...AND THE FACT THAT THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD
RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.
 
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THAT PAULA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
OR 005 DEGREES AT ABOUT 4 TO 5 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS
ABOUT TO RECURVE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WE ARE
CONFIDENT THAT THE TURN WILL OCCUR SOON...BUT LESS CONFIDENT IN HOW
SHARP IT WILL BE. SOME RELIABLE MODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
EAST ACROSS CUBA AND OTHERS SHOW A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SHARP TURN TO THE EAST OVER OR
VERY NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA UNTIL DISSIPATION IN FOUR
DAYS...OR EARLIER.
 
GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 21.3N  85.8W    85 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 22.0N  85.5W    80 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 22.6N  84.8W    70 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 23.1N  83.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N  82.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 22.5N  80.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 22.1N  79.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA