000 WTNT43 KNHC 122044 TCDAT3 HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 400 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010 AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN MONITORING PAULA AND RECENTLY MEASURED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. EARLIER SFMR WINDS RANGED BETWEEN 85 TO 90 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN EYE OF 10 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADY NEAR 981 MB FOR THE PAST TWO FIXES...PERHAPS INDICATING THAT THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS ENDED. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS OUTSTANDING WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUT LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS ARE 5.0...OR 90 KNOTS...ON THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 85 KNOTS. PAULA HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF HIGH SHEAR IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. THE SHEAR AND THE TERRAIN WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...PAULA WILL ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER WESTERN CUBA. NOW THAT PAULA IS STRONGER...IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND THAT IS PERHAPS THE REASON WHY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD TRACK IN THE LATEST RUNS. IN PREVIOUS RUNS..MODELS KEPT A SHALLOW CYCLONE MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NEVERTHELESS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BEYOND 48 HOURS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE EFFECT OF LAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 19.2N 86.0W 85 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 20.3N 86.2W 95 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 21.5N 86.0W 85 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 22.0N 85.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 22.5N 83.5W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 15/1800Z 22.5N 80.5W 45 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 16/1800Z 22.5N 79.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 22.5N 78.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA