000
WTNT43 KNHC 121440
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN CONSISTS OF A ROUND AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A HINT OF
AN EYE FEATURE AND LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. LATEST AVAILABLE
SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT RING OF CONVECTION MARKING THE
EYEWALL AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE 4.0 SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE
HURRICANE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER BY JUDGING THE LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGES. HOWEVER...I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE...WHICH WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TO ADJUST
THE INTENSITY...IF NECESSARY. ALTHOUGH PAULA IS MOVING OVER AN AREA
OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT WHICH IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...
THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS WOULD ONLY ALLOW SMALL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND RESULTS IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING TREND IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES ABOUT 9
KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SOON...THE
HURRICANE WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS...OR
WITHIN WEAK MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK
BEYOND 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE COULD ALSO MEANDER OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
GRADUALLY FADING AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. GIVEN SUCH
LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE LOW.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 18.6N  85.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 19.9N  86.4W    75 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 21.0N  86.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 21.5N  86.5W    75 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 22.0N  86.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 22.0N  85.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 22.0N  85.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N  84.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA